The CPI (Consumer Price Index) report shows how much the prices of everyday goods and services have risen. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes it every month, and when the number surprises the market, bitcoin can move sharply within minutes.
CPI vs core CPI
- Headline CPI covers everything, including gas and groceries.
- Core CPI strips out food and energy, which swing a lot from month to month. Markets watch it closely because it shows the underlying trend in inflation.
Year over year vs month over month
- YoY (year over year) compares prices with the same month last year. It's the number you'll usually see in headlines.
- MoM (month over month) compares with last month. It shows changes in direction sooner, so traders watch it just as closely.
Why the forecast matters more than the number
Before the release, economists publish a consensus forecast, and markets largely price it in. So the real question isn't whether inflation is high or low - it's whether it came in above or below expectations.
- Hotter than expected suggests the Fed has less room to cut rates, which tends to weigh on risk assets like crypto.
- Cooler than expected raises hopes of rate cuts, which tends to support risk assets.
Because inflation feeds straight into the Fed's thinking, CPI matters even more in the weeks before an FOMC meeting.
When does CPI come out?
The report is released in the US morning, Eastern Time. For exact dates, check the official BLS release schedule, which is published well in advance. The first few minutes after the release can be very volatile, so be careful with leverage around it.
Seeing it on WhaleCue
The Economic calendar on the News screen shows upcoming CPI releases along with other major US and China events. As the release gets close it shows a countdown ("in N min"), and once it's out you'll see the actual figure next to the forecast and previous values, so you can tell at a glance whether it was a surprise. Turn on Right before data releases in your alerts to get notified right before the release.
This isn't investment advice. Always make your own decisions.